Kenya’s Bid for AU Leadership Falls Short: What Next for Its Diplomatic Ambitions?

Nairobi, Kenya –17th February 2025.

By Hamisi Latama 

Kenya has suffered a diplomatic setback in its quest for continental leadership after former Prime Minister Raila Odinga failed to secure the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). The loss marks Kenya’s second unsuccessful bid for the role, following Amina Mohamed’s attempt several years ago. The outcome raises important questions about Kenya’s positioning in African diplomacy and what lessons can be drawn for future engagements.

PHOTO: Dr Joe Lenai a Global Health Diplomat addressing diplomats and international relations professionals After the just concluded AUC elections at the international Centre for Diplomatic practices Africa in Nairobi

Odinga, popularly known as "Baba" among Kenyans, ran on a platform emphasizing African integration, economic development, and enhanced security cooperation. His vision echoed the European Union model, advocating for policies such as common visas, open skies, and eventually a continental currency. His campaign also aligned with the AU’s 2025 theme of “Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations,” reinforcing calls for historical accountability and economic justice

Despite Odinga’s strong credentials and Pan-Africanist appeal, diplomatic challenges played a key role in the loss. Kenya faced stiff competition from other regions, highlighting the significance of regional bloc politics in AU leadership contests. The country’s strategy may have lacked the sustained engagement and alliance-building necessary to secure firm commitments from key voting blocs within the AU.

Moreover, linguistic and geopolitical factors played a role. The Francophone bloc, which has historically wielded significant influence in AU elections, may have leaned toward a different candidate, reflecting the persistent divide between Anglophone and Francophone Africa in continental politicd

One of the bright spots in the campaign was the unified backing from Kenya’s government. President William Ruto and Odinga—often political rivals—stood together in pursuit of the continental leadership role. This rare show of national unity underscored Kenya’s growing maturity in foreign policy and strengthened its diplomatic credibility, even in defeat.

Kenya must work on deepening ties across Africa, particularly within regional blocs such as ECOWAS and SADC. The AU’s election process is often influenced by prior commitments and alliances, which Kenya must cultivate well in advance of such contests.

While Kenya enjoys strong diplomatic visibility, more investment is needed in long-term diplomatic strategies. This includes better resourcing for AU engagements, targeted diplomatic outreach, and leveraging key regional institutions to bolster future bids.

Kenya must recognize the AU’s internal voting patterns, geopolitical influences, and the role of linguistic blocs. Strategic lobbying and coalition-building should start years before such elections.

Beyond the AU Chairpersonship, Kenya should actively pursue other high-profile roles within international organizations, ensuring sustained influence in global and continental governance.

Despite the loss, Kenya remains a formidable diplomatic player in Africa. The government has signaled its commitment to continuing active participation in AU affairs, and Odinga’s campaign has elevated Kenya’s visibility on the continental stage. Looking ahead, Kenya’s leaders must translate this experience into a refined diplomatic strategy that enhances its influence in future leadership contests.

While the quest for the AUC Chair may have ended in disappointment, Kenya’s ambitions for regional and continental leadership remain firmly intact. By building on the lessons learned, the country can better position itself for success in future diplomatic endeavors.