3.27 Million Kenyans Face Acute Hunger as Mandera Hits Extreme Malnutrition Levels

By James Nyaigoti

At least 3.27 million Kenyans are currently facing high levels of acute food insecurity as drought conditions tighten their grip across the country’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), with Mandera County recording extreme malnutrition levels, according to a new briefing by the ASAL Humanitarian Network (AHN).

The figures show that 3.27 million people are classified under Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and above, representing 18.5 percent of the affected population nearly one in five people in the ASAL regions in urgent need of assistance.

Of these, 2,873,380 people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while 399,850 are already in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), one step below famine. No population is currently classified under Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), but humanitarian actors warn that the expansion of Emergency-level food insecurity signals a rapidly narrowing window for preventive action.

Mandera County illustrates the severity of the crisis. Following poor October–November–December 2025 short rains, the county has entered the Alarm phase of drought. More than 335,000 people in Mandera require humanitarian assistance.

The nutrition situation has reached the highest severity classification. Mandera is now classified in IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) the most severe category under the IPC Acute Malnutrition scale.

An estimated 86,360 children aged 6–59 months require treatment for acute malnutrition in Mandera alone, including 20,165 children suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). In addition, over 17,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls require urgent nutritional support, underscoring growing intergenerational risks.

Across Kenya, 810,871 children aged 6–59 months now require management for acute malnutrition, a significant increase compared to mid-2025 assessments. Within ASAL counties alone, nearly 500,000 children require treatment, with more than 113,000 classified as Severe Acute Malnutrition cases.

Refugee-hosting camps are also under significant stress. Currently, 430,000 people 60 percent of camp populations are in Crisis or Emergency, including 186,456 in Emergency conditions. Any disruption in assistance pipelines could rapidly escalate severity levels.

If the March–May 2026 long rains underperform, projections indicate that the number of people in Crisis or worse will rise to 3.69 million, with Emergency cases increasing to 607,437 people. In such a scenario, 20 percent of the ASAL population would face high acute food insecurity.

The drivers of the crisis are cumulative and compounding. Consecutive below-average rainfall seasons have reduced pasture regeneration and weakened livestock body conditions. Milk production a primary protein source in pastoral diets has declined sharply. Staple food prices remain elevated, water access distances have increased, and disease burdens continue to strain fragile health systems.

Nutrition commodity stock-outs and limited outreach coverage in remote pastoral areas are constraining early treatment, further heightening risks.

While Kenya is not yet in famine, humanitarian experts warn the risk trajectory is unmistakable.

“With 3.27 million people already in Crisis or worse, and potentially 3.69 million if rains fail, the window for preventive action is narrowing rapidly,” the network cautioned.

Response Underway, but Funding Gap Widens

Significant response efforts are underway. The Government of Kenya has activated NDMA coordination mechanisms, allocating an estimated KES 6 billion to drought response and continuing food, water, health, and livestock interventions estimated at approximately KES 4 billion per month.

County governments have expanded water trucking, supported livestock disease surveillance, and maintained health facility-level nutrition programming. Humanitarian partners and local networks have launched targeted flash appeals, hotspot mapping, and integrated response planning.

The ASAL Humanitarian Network has activated a coordinated, locally led early response aligned with its January–July 2026 Drought Flash Appeal, starting with Mandera. The response aims to translate early warning into early action, strengthen complementarity, align interventions with county Disaster Risk Management systems, and generate operational evidence to inform scale-up in other drought-affected regions.

However, AHN warns that the scale of need now exceeds available assistance.

“What remains is timely, flexible, and adequately scaled financing to stabilize conditions before Crisis becomes Catastrophe,” the network said.

As early warning systems continue to flag worsening projections, humanitarian actors are urging sustained and scaled-up support to prevent a deepening crisis across Kenya’s drought-affected ASAL counties.